How Can I Predict Sick Leave to Avoid Excess Manpower in Daily Factory Operations?

Good Day, I would like to seek advice on how to avoid having excess manpower in daily factory operations.

Forecasting sick leave in factory operations

For example, I have 100 machines and 100 staff, and all these machines need to be operated daily. Staff are allowed to take sick leave, so how can I forecast the number of sick leaves on a daily basis? I need to ensure that all these machines can still be operated even with staff on last-minute sick leave, without having too much excess manpower on standby.

Methods for forecasting sick leave

Are there any formulas or types of records that I should be looking into for this forecasting? Should I track the monthly sick leave records to determine on which days the staff took sick leave?

Please advise.

Have a nice day.

Kevin.

I suggest that out of 100 machines, you identify 10 machines that can be operated by a single worker at a time and offer additional incentives for them. This way, you can avoid any production loss due to a shortage of manpower. Leave by 100 workers cannot be predicted.

Standard Workforce vs. Actual Working Force

There is this concept of Standard Workforce vis-a-vis Actual Working Force, which takes into account the number of machines that must be operated, the number of operators, the number of trainee-operators, the total number of leave entitlements, and the accepted discipline that leave is availed only based on actual need, keeping the exigencies of operations in mind. Aberrations should be identified, and habitual absentees on medical unfitness for duty should be monitored for a quarter. Then, decide on disciplinary action, including "settled-on-medical grounds," based on medical boards certifying inability to continue the allotted work.

Kritarh Team of Special Educators, Bengaluru Office, 23 Jan 2019

Dear Kevin,

Your challenge can be addressed by using "Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques." Though it is also not a 100% foolproof technique, it will help mitigate your challenges.

Thanks,

Dinesh Divekar

If the staff strength is more than 70 with the aid of power, it is better to go for shift-wise operations, which provide appropriate solutions. This is because in case of absenteeism in one shift, you can easily arrange the manpower from another shift to fulfill the requirements and pay additional incentives to them. As Mr. Vignesh mentioned, if you aim to maintain production output at the same level.

Options to Address Excess Manpower

There are many options to address this issue:

1) Have a bench strength of 10% as trainees.

2) Enhance the operators' skill levels so that they can operate more than one machine at a time.

3) Conduct continuous TPM analysis of machines to determine their productivity levels.

4) Engage vendors who can supply manpower when the need arises.

5) Consider offering overtime/production incentives as another approach.

6) If you have 100 machines and 100 staff as indicated in your question, consider running some machines on shifts to increase staff/trainees and production.

Please let me know if you need further assistance or clarification on any of these options.

Scientific Approach to Manpower Planning

You need to have a scientific approach rather than rely on gut feeling or personal judgment. You can adapt principles of industrial engineering to arrive at the standard manpower requirement (current benchmark). Of course, considering the legal and health aspects, you need to factor in minimum leaves.

Once you arrive at the standard manpower requirement, you can make efforts to raise the bar by adopting multiple methods like multitasking, upskilling, shared jobs, automation, cycle time reduction, downtime reduction, production incentives, attendance incentives, employee motivation, etc.

Wishing you good luck!

Regards, Shailesh Parikh

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Vadodara

Are you talking about your experience in Singapore or India?

That apart, generally, in the circumstances and as many suggestions posed here, there is more than one solution available to you. Prior to making a single decision, you should have conducted your work study using Industrial Engineering concepts. You haven't mentioned whether your plant runs a single shift or multiple shifts; rather, you only talked about a 'daily basis.' I'm considering the possibility of running the machines in 3 shifts of 8 hours each (as we do in India) if this is feasible.

Secondly, by now you should have kept a record of the frequency of leave of absence and the resultant 'idle time' of machinery. This data should clearly show the pattern of staff who go on leave on a daily basis and how many machines are idling due to absence. I'm sure if such data is available to you, a solution will also be ready. The available solutions are well-known and could be listed as follows:

1) Create backup strength; the numbers required will be driven by past data.
2) If you are running more than 3 shifts, this task could be easily accomplished.
3) Resort to overtime or compensatory off for some of the existing/willing 100 staff who could fill in.
4) Outsource the shortage arising due to leave either on a piece-rate or time rate computed on 'machine hour or man-hour rates.' In doing so, you should have conducted a 'cost-benefit analysis' to assist you in decision-making.
5) Plan routine, breakdown, or preventive maintenance of all machines on a daily basis, by rotation, so that downtime due to absence is not felt.

Leave Calculation and Staffing Requirements

As per the Factories Act, you have to provide 1 leave for every 20 working days. Now, out of 365 days, 52 are weekly offs. This leaves a total of 313 days available for each worker, assuming no leaves are taken. With 16 leaves rounded off per year (1.33 per month), for 100 workers, this amounts to 150 days of leave out of 31,300 available workdays.

On average, there are 0.05 leaves per worker per day, meaning 5 workers would be on leave each day. Consequently, in a single-shift operation, you would need to hire 5 additional workers daily. In case of additional absenteeism due to sickness, there might be 2 more employees absent each day, requiring a total of 7 additional employees to be hired. This results in a minimum requirement of 107 employees. Note: this calculation does not apply to operations with 3 shifts, as the logic would be different.

Well, you need to do proper planning first of all:

1) Identify the minimum number of employees that are essential for daily operations.
2) Keep a small number of additional trainee employees.
3) Divide tasks into shifts.
4) Maintain a backup of outsourced resources for specific situations.
5) Track employees' leaves using an effective mechanism to avoid unnecessary absences.
6) Ensure health and safety in the workplace to reduce the percentage of sick leaves.

I hope this helps. GOOD LUCK.

Hi,

You need to study about "TIME AND MOTION STUDY" to analyze machine capacity and manpower planning. Additionally, you need to analyze the last 6 months regarding absences and leaves. Calculate the average number of absences and leaves per person, and use that average to determine the required extra manpower.

P. PACKIARAJ