Dear Abhay,
Maximum credible (loss) accident analysis is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries, which involves the following steps -
1. Development of credible accident scenarios. For the units of any industry being analysed, a set of scenarios are developed for accidents which are ‘credible’; the credibility being qualitatively understood as a combination of likelihood (of occurrence) and scale (of damage potential).
2. Delineation of maximum credible accident scenario. Based on the credibility of the accident scenarios they are ranked, and maximum credible accident scenarios are identified.
3. Damage calculations through mathematical modelling. The impact of these scenarios—for example explosion followed by a fire ball—is then studied using available models of explosion, boiling liquid expanding vapour cloud explosion (BLEVE), confined vapour cloud explosion (CVCE), vapour cloud explosion (VCE) and fire ball.
4. Risk estimation. Based on the damage potential estimated in the previous step and the probability of occurrence of these credible accident scenarios, risk factors are estimated.
Central to these steps is the aspect of ‘credibility’. A ‘credible’ accident is one which is within the region of possibility and which is also likely to be severe enough to cause significant damage.
Hope this answers you.
Once again, I'm late, due to tight schedule. Kindly regret, as it cannot be avoided in my current schedule.
But I'm happy to see many good questions arising from you. Keep on asking (with patience to get reply).
Dear Ragu,
Once again thank you for your valuable contribution. Keep on contributing. Even though I'm not answering all the posts, I'm having a look on the posts atleast during alternate days...
But due to current tight work schedule I'm unable to reply or take part immediately.