How Are You Coping with Job Uncertainty During the Global Recession?

Sudden rise in abnormal growth has brought this situation before us. Could you believe a simple example? In 2005, one flat cost five lacs, and within the next 12 months, it became 40 lacs. This is ridiculous. This was bound to happen. Oil prices jumped from US$ 50 per barrel to 147 US$, and in the next three months, they reached 45 US$, showing the volatile nature of business. Profiteers switch investments from one sector to another at such a fast pace in order to earn fast bucks. For example, from real estate to gold, to the commodity market, to food grains, resulting in shortages and food crises. Finally, in crude oil, just within 24 months, this economic turmoil occurred.

Although India has not been directly impacted by the global financial crisis, we should be cautious about the indirect knock-on effect of the global crisis. According to the GET report, over 50 million could lose their jobs by 2009 worldwide. The worst thing is that as we live in an agrarian economy where the unemployment rate is already high and 60% of the population is still dependent on agriculture, the rate of unemployment is rising further due to these worldwide layoffs as most of the students of India go abroad for job purposes.

Going further, not only the labor market, but also the financial market, IT/ITes, export, and manufacturing sectors have been affected adversely. The IT/ITes sector is the major component of India's growth because the share in GDP given by agriculture has been taken up by the services sector in recent past.

The global meltdown is not only affecting the services sector, even the industrial sector has been affected adversely. Major projects and expansion plans are being reviewed by the corporate sector and they have started focusing on reducing costs and borrowings. The first half of the year 2009 is considered as the worst period. Despite all these problems, the biggest problem that still exists from the past is 'Information asymmetry'. It would be fine if our Government or the members of the major corporate sector don't know the problem or where to find the answer, but the truth is that they know both and are waiting for other countries to take steps.

The most important challenge faced by our Government during this time is to ensure a balance between inflation and growth. If our economy experiences high growth rates, it will lead to major exports from our nation which will affect our domestic market and if the economy experiences a decline in the inflation rate, it will lead to major imports to our country which will affect the government budget.

Though the impact of the global financial crisis on India is stronger than expected, it will be the first to recover if the Government takes correct decisions and changes the established fiscal and monetary policies. The wholesale price index and the consumer price index need to be watched. The Government should ensure continuous credit flow at a low rate of interest to the private sector and especially to small and medium enterprises for their expansion and growth projects. A low rate of interest is not the only way of boosting economic growth. An increase in government expenditure will stimulate the demand so that the industry will produce, which will affect economic growth. The Government should also initiate measures to address the mutual funds and non-banking financial companies. They should also keep an eye on the market manipulators and the institutional speculators, as when most individual investors lose when the market falls, the institutional speculators make money when there are financial speculative transactions.

Hi all,

The law of gravity says that "anything that goes up must come down," which is true in today's downturn. This will apply to salaries too. :(

Furthermore, please note that recession - boomtime - recession is a part of the business cycle. There are certain triggers that push these events - the dotcom burst in 2001, and currently, it's the financial markets that have triggered the downturn.

It would be unfair to say that India will not be affected by the recession. We will be affected by this - we are already seeing many developments around us. The real estate market has declined (with most people hoping that it could decline further), and crude oil prices have also decreased.

The trick lies in making use of the downturn in a profitable way - by investing in one's learning.

These are my 2 cents on the topic.

Thanks,
Giridhar

The terms used these days:

Global Economic downturn

Economic Meltdown

Recession and what not...

These are names of one single monster called economic financial manipulation through financial re-engineering. It has been done through the multiple uses of money circulation. For example, Rs1 circulating 100 times creates an asset value of Rs 100, but in reality, its market value and worth are Rs 1. This concept and MBA knowledge have been applied in financial and banking institutes for financing most projects. These assets have been mortgaged many times from one financial institute and bankers to another by adding their own re-valuation of assets depending on the economic indicators worldwide as well as business projections with the anticipation of HUGE MARKET DEMAND which never exists.

Now the world has to wait for deflation and devaluation of currency and real economy size as per the real value of the assets, which were fictitiously inflated 1000 to 4000 times of their original value.

This process will take the next three to five years as the volume of total global financial turmoil is huge; money will reach its hometown and owner to further gain strength. This means Western Countries will squeeze all money from world circulation, especially from emerging markets like China and India.

Until then, we have to wait.

Badlu