How Will India's Changing Demographics Impact Organizations in the Next Decade?

Demographic catastrophe? What will happen to organizations?

Dear friends,

Namaskar.

Today there is surplus manpower in the Indian market. But the demography is rapidly changing.

1. In another 10 years, an Indian mother will have less than 1 child on average.
2. Due to declining female births, there will be fewer mothers to deliver babies.
3. Increasing AIDS in the workforce will reduce manpower in the market.
4. There is increasing impotency/frigidity.
5. There is an increase in suicides.
6. There is an increase in heart attacks.
7. And so on.

All these factors will lead to a deficiency of manpower in another 10 years. What will happen to organizations in India?

Regards,
Jogeshwar.

Hi...

Are these prospects so frightening?

With the kind of unemployment we have today in India, and I mean 'educated and graduate' unemployment, if the manpower actually goes down a bit, it would solve or at least decrease a bit of our population-related problems.

Of course, the issues are worth looking into, and something needs to be done but not because it will create a deficiency of manpower. We simply have too many people in India.

Another perspective is the 'QUALITY' of manpower.

I personally feel that a person having a multi-billion company should have several children to take care of the same (leaving aside the family disputes), whereas the man on the street in the slum should not have more than one or in fact any children for the simple reason that he CANNOT support them. He cannot educate them nor give them a healthy life.

That kind of population is the concern. Decreasing that kind of population is the real issue. Asking the educated mass to have only one child and letting the uneducated/poor mass to have several (simply because you can't control them) will lead to an imbalance in the quality of the population in India.

If the above facts pertain strictly to the so-called 'urban' quality mass, well, we are heading towards a problem that needs to be looked into. If the facts pertain to rural mass, well, is it a problem or a natural solution?

--- I might have sounded a bit harsh and maybe used a few 'wrong' harsh words... apologies... but I hope I have conveyed my lot...

...shoOOonya...

"Tragically, the world is dividing into two parts: one where population growth is slowing as fertility falls, and one where population growth is slowing as mortality rises," said Lester R. Brown, co-author with Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil of Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge. "That rising death rates have already reduced the projected population for 2050 by 150 million represents a failure of our political institutions unmatched since the outbreak of World War II."

Dear Sho00onya,

Namaskar. Thanks for your reply. There is nothing harsh in your reply. You are most welcome. But you have argued your points very hypothetically. The issue is now concerning even the United Nations as well as the World Health Organization. Imagine if an Indian mother was having 6 children on average in 1971 and in 1998 it has come down to less than 3, then it is not a bit of a decline. Any hypothetical solution is no solution. The problem is really frightening.

So friends, should there be some serious thoughts?

Regards,

Jogeshwar

Hi,

Well, even if the number of children per mother is decreasing, my question remains: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? Hasn't population control been on the national agenda for years? Don't we want an India with significantly fewer people compared to today? Our population is simply HUGE, not only in terms of numbers but also in terms of DENSITY. We are pretty high on 'Number of People per Square KM' figures.

Also, as I posted in the earlier post, the QUALITY of the population is more of a concern rather than the QUANTITY. We should be aiming at improving quality and reducing quantity.

ShoOOonya

Dear Sho00onya,

Thanks for your prompt reply. It is true that curbing population size has been on our national agenda and the inertia continues. The demographic trends can be seen at three levels - rising population size, static population size, and declining population size. The first is when there is overpopulation, and the third are always problems. We are likely to jump from the first to the third. Are we prepared for the problems the third type of situation will cause us? No.

I had missed replying to your quality aspect. There will be a decline in population size not because our quality of life is improving but because of the factors which I have already mentioned. These are impoverishments that we are going to incur more and more. What makes you project that our quality of life will improve in the coming 10 years?

Regards,
Jogeshwar.

Dear friends,

Namaskar.

This issue appears as the first news on the front page of last Sunday's Times of India. The brief is as follows: Deficiency of the workforce by 2020 - US 17 million, China 10 million, and Japan 9 million. As far as India is concerned, it has been predicted that there will be a surplus workforce of 47 million. However, my intuitive prediction is that India too will fall in line.

Regarding quality, the news article states: "But the experts say this huge population may prove a curse if investments in human capital are not taken up on a rapid scale. This would entail providing education and employment opportunities, besides investing heavily in infrastructure."

Interested members may look into the World Bank and International Monetary Fund reports/news on one hand, and United Nations and World Health Organization reports/news on the other.

Will you please make the discussion more lively?

Regards,
Jogeshwar.

Dear friends,

Namaskar.

Here is the fertility level of certain states in India.
"Nine states -- Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Goa, Nagaland, Delhi, Pondicherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, and Mizoram -- have already achieved the desired Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 or less. Eleven other states and Union Territories have achieved a total fertility rate of less than 3.0," Ramadoss said.

Regards,
Jogeshwar

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The Demographic Dividend

Dr. William T. Wilson says that India's huge population—till now considered its biggest stumbling block to big growth—will be its biggest strength in the future.

1. India's population is likely to surpass China's by 2030.

2. India's population will rise by almost 350 million, twice as much as the United States, Western Europe, and China combined.

3. China's population currently exceeds India's by over 200 million. By 2050, India's population is likely to exceed China's by 200 million.

4. India's proportion of urban population is projected to rise from 29% currently to 41% by 2030.

Growth in the labor force

1. Growth in India's working-age population will exceed its already high population growth until 2015.

2. While China's working-age population declines between 2020 and 2050, India's continues to grow until 2045.

3. China's current working-age population dwarfs India's by 230 million. However, by 2050, India's working-age population will exceed China's by the same amount.

An unidentified Indian vendor gestures as he waits for customers with his basket full of snacks at a tourist spot in Bangalore.

Photograph: Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty Images

Also see: The Swift is here!

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Dear friends,

Namaskar.

The above extract is from rediff.com. In the projections, I think the concomitant demographic maladies are overlooked.

Regards,

Jogeshwar

Here is a news article on indiatimes.com today: 'BPO boom going bust? No way, it's as big as ever.

NEW DELHI: Has success gone to their collective head? Or are they just being complacent? On a high after bagging some of the biggest contracts in IT/ITES outsourcing in recent times, the industry is brushing aside all predictions of the boom coming to an end.

"Success of BPO was dependent upon India's surplus manpower. Perhaps here is the sign of declining."

Regards