Can We Really Predict Employee Attrition Over the Next 3-5 Years? Seeking Your Insights

Dear All,

Can we forecast attrition for a period of 3-5 years? If yes, I would like to understand how it can be done and what data are required.

Seeking your expert inputs.

Regards,
Veena

Hi Veena,

Forecasting may be possible, but the accuracy factor will vary because any change in management policy or organizational culture may increase or decrease the rate of attrition. Attached is a link for calculating the cost of attrition – this might help you understand the cost factors involved in attrition: [Employee Turnover Cost Calculator - HR Chally](http://www.chally.com/turnover_cost_calculator.htm).

Good luck!
Debashish

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Hi Debashish,

Thank you for your response. My query is related to attrition percentage forecast for the next 3-5 years. We have the cost calculation sheet to compute the turnover cost.

Regards,
Veena

You can take the attrition % and related data for last 5 - 6 years and take an average...that should help you forecasting...I believe there is no scientific tool which can give you an accurate forecast – “25%” unlike like Weather forecast - 25°C!!!

So, presumably you have to prepare your Forecast Report on hypothesis...

In my previous roles (especially call centers), forecasting attrition was an integral part of Human Resources management. When forecasting attrition, I considered a number of factors:

1) What are the historical attrition rates? Is there seasonality to the attrition?
2) What is the attrition trend? Is it increasing or decreasing?
3) What are the industry attrition rates?
4) How is the economy doing? What impact will it have on attrition?
5) What is our organization doing to impact attrition? Are we increasing wages and benefits? Are we introducing mentoring programs, etc.?

I start with the historical/seasonal trends and then adjust up or down based on the other factors.