Attrition Forecast

Dear All
Can we forecast attrition for a period of 3-5yrs? If yes, i would like to understand how it can be under and what are the data required.
Seek your expert inputs.
regards,
Veena

Hi Veena,
Forecasting may be possible but accuracy factor will vary - bacause any change in management policy or organizational culture may higher or lower the rate of attrition.
Attached is a link for calculating cost of attrition...this might help you to understand what are the cost factors involved in attrition...
Employee Turnover Cost Calculator - HR Chally
Good Luck!
Debashish

Dear All,

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thank you,
Priyaa

Hi Debashish,
Thanks for your respone. My query is just related to Attrition %age forecast for next 3-5 years.
We have the cost calculation sheet to compute the turnover cost.
regards,
Veena

You can take the attrition % and related data for last 5 - 6 years and take an average...that should help you forecasting...I believe there is no scientific tool which can give you an accurate forecast – “25%” unlike like Weather forecast - 25°C!!!

So, presumably you have to prepare your Forecast Report on hypothesis...

In my previous roles (especially call center's) forecasting attrition is an integral part of Human Resources management. When forecasting attrition I used a number of factors.
1) What is the historical attrition rates? Is there seasonality to the attrition?
2) What is the attrition trend? Is it increasing or decreasing?
3) What are the industry attrition rates?
4) How is the economy doing? What impact will it have on attrition?
5) What are we doing as an organization to impact attrition? Are we increasing wages and benefits? Are we introducing mentoring programs etc.?
I start with the historical / seasonal trends and then adjust up or down based on the other factors.