The Union Budget of India, or the Annual Financial Statement in Article 112 of the Constitution of India, is the annual budget of the Republic of India. It is presented each year on the last working day of February by the Finance Minister of India in Parliament. The budget has to be passed by the House before it can come into effect on April 1, the start of India's financial year.
In the Union Budget the Finance Ministry discuss about the core financial issues like taxation, expenditure, fiscal deficit, subsidies etc. given to different sectors, which effects the macro economics of the country. The Government also declares some important policy initiatives, and outlines some plans for economic policy in the coming months.
Stock Market tends to be greatly influenced by the budget. The stock Market response reflects the quality of budget. If the government gives subsidy or tax rebate or if there are some policy changes then the respective sectors get influenced positively or negatively which affects the overall stock market.
The BSE Sensex is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks and was started on January 1, 1986. The Sensex is regarded as the pulse of the domestic stock markets in India. It consists of the 30 largest and most actively traded stocks, representative of various sectors, on the Bombay Stock Exchange. These companies account for around fifty per cent of the market capitalization of the BSE.
The Union budget creates enormous market volatility and turnover in the stock market prior to budget as different expectations prevails with respect to taxes impact on individuals, companies and overall economy. After the budget announcement also volatility continues as Market movers such as FIIS, DIIS, Mutual Funds, HNIs, Retail Investors, adjust their portfolios as per the budget impacts. An empirical research can guide hedging and trading around the Budget date for certain extent. This research has become even more important, pertaining to the fact that stock index derivatives are now traded in India.
The objective of the project is to help the economic agents to speculate on movement of the stock index, to predict about index volatility, and to hedge themselves against fluctuations of the index. The objective is to gather empirical evidence to shed some light on questions directly related to trading and portfolio formation on Indian Stock Exchanges.
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